Tag Archives: Obama

538: Road to 270: Nevada

Election forecast via fivethirtyeight.com:

Three big races in Nevada — the presidential race, which favors Obama, and two House races. Incumbent Jon Porter is in a tossup contest with Dina Titus, who unsuccessfully ran for Governor two years ago. Turnout will be the key, and the incredible Obama operation will help a rising tide lift all boats. Jill Derby (D) and incumbent Dean Heller (R) are in a rematch from two years ago in the 2d House district, which encompasses all of the state minus most of Clark County, and Republicans worry they will lose this seat in a wave. Derby is a good candidate, and has worked the rural parts of her district for years. People know her, and it’s not hard to envision some McCain-Derby voters. Heller remains favored, but this is one of those that every last drop of GOTV has to make the Heller folks very nervous.